NBA Tuesday.. 1-1 Thursday.. 57-39 (59.4%)

Last Thursday extended my streak of  .500 or above nights to 9-straight.  That streak includes 3 100% nights, but I still consider it a bit of a cold streak.  I did turn Thursday into a winning night by hitting my second-straight middle in as many nights, with a 15.5-point middle that odds makers allowed us to hit on the Hawks/Magic game.  As I’ve mentioned, I will release all halftime hedge bets for my official plays via twitter.  So if you are not keen on tracking and assessing hedging opportunities, I suggest you follow me on twitter: @mrchandman

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trends	Market	W Deficit	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
BOS	91	-2	-3.5	6-0				1.0
CLE	93	2		4-0	3	0.5			5.5
GSW	99	-4		3-4		1.5		1.0	1
IND	103	4	-5	7-1	0.5
PHI	92	1	-4	4-3			Brand
DET	91	-1		0-6	2.5	1.5		1.5	3
NOH	92	-6		1-8	2.5	3		2.5	7.5
CHI	98	6	-13.5	1-2
WAS	88	-4		9-0	0	1		2.5	3.5
MIL	92	4	-7.5	6-1
TOR	95	-10		3-3		1.5	Kleiza
HOU	105	10	-9.5	0-4	2.5			0.0	0.5
NJN	92	-5		2-3	1.5	2			5.5
DAL	97	5	-10.5	0-2				0.0
UTA	99	-5		2-0				1.0
SAC	104	5	-2	0-2	1	0.5			3
MIN	91	-4		2-4	3	0.5			2.5
LAC	95	4	-6.5	0-0				1.5

Plays:

Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5

Looks like the public is bullish on the Celtics coming out of break.  Maybe everyone has forgotten the Celtics forgettable start to the season.  I’m expecting to read a lot of people say the Celtics are “rested” so that is the reason they will cover.  Ah, the public and their futile attempts to explain why they make bandwagon bets on road favorites.

The fact of the matter is that the Cavs are competitive enough to be favored in most of their games at home, why would this Boston team be an exception?  A good way to evaluate this line is by looking at the UTA/SAC game tomorrow, Sacramento is laying 2 at home against a Jazz team that is quite similar to this Celtics team, I actually rank the Jazz a bit higher than the Celtics.  Cleveland and Sacramento are my #23 and #24 ranked teams, respectively, so they are as similar as it gets.  However, there is a 5.5-point disparity between the lines in these games.  It’s a simple case of line-inflation for a road favorite with a strong tradition.

I expect this line to improve with time.

New Orleans Hornets +13.5

The Hornets are quietly becoming one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.  They’ve snuck into my top-15 road teams and lines are still inflated despite the ATS cover streak they took into the break.  Chicago holds a trend advantage on New Orleans, but that isn’t nearly enough to offset the resounding ATS edge the Hornets hold in this match.

Chicago is a major contender that took a 60% cover rate into the break, books tend to evaluate themselves at the midway point and try to correct some of the teams they undervalues in the first half.  Chicago is one of the teams that is likely to see far less ATS covers in the second half of this season, because the books lose money on popular teams that cover at a high rate.

Another reason for this inflated line is the trouncing that Chicago put on the Hornets last time out, in NO.  Every game is an independent event when it comes to probability, the public doesn’t understand that so you can always get value with a team that got blown out in the last match-up against a given team.  The most recent memory I have of this situation is when we were on the Suns +2.5 at home against a Laker team that beat them by 12 points 2 days earlier.  To jog your memory, the Suns won that game by 12 points..  I don’t expect the Hornets to beat the Bulls, but they will hang tough in a game where most of the Bulls focus will be on heading to San Antonio on the following night.

This line has already moved a full point in the Hornets favor, so just let it push it’s way higher and higher.

New Jersey Nets +10.5

As you know, I love betting on New Jersey when they are on the road.  They are on of the few counter intuitive teams that plays better on the road than they do at home (based on my weighted power rankings.)  Also, the Nets are on Vegas’ midway evaluation as a team that needs to be boosted in order to avoid profitable blind fading.  They covered only 43% of their games in the first half, anything that is outside the 48-52% range is a huge deal to Vegas odds makers.  Keep in mind that most teams land within that 48-52% range by the end of the season, in terms of ATS win pct.

On the other hand the Mavs are covering 58.8% of their spreads, an alarming figure that should be priority #1 for odds makers to move on.  You CANNOT undervalue the defending world champions if you are trying to minimize loss and maximize profits.. and still Vegas undervalued the Mavs in the first half of the season, don’t expect them to continue making that mistake.

This is another look-ahead game.  Dallas is on the first leg of a b2b against a seemingly harmless Nets team and they have to head to Memphis the next night to take-on a divisional foe.  The only issue is that the Nets have arguably the best point guard in the game, second-chance points from Humphries’ efforts, a top-5 rookie in Brooks.. oh, and they just got their 7-footer back.  If the Nets are firing on all cylinders they have a shot with any team in the league, I’ll take a double digit cushion any day on the Nets.

Once again, we are opposing public perception with this play so we can wait for a better number.

Guaranteed profits in this year’s dunk contest

The All-Star break can be a tough withdrawal period for daily NBA bettors.  This year I have a guaranteed scheme that will have you profiting on the slam dunk contest virtually risk-free.

As most people know, the contest in taking on a new format where the winner is decided  by the fans.  This creates an interesting opportunity for bettors.  By making the dunk contest a fans choice contest, many fans have already decided who they are voting for and will basically just root for that player no matter what dunks he performs.  I would put about half the voters in this category, where their minds will not be changed.  Now, let’s analyze poll data from a number of different sources:

Poll results:

IB Times: (with Iman Shumpert out)

Jeremy Evans (UTAH)  35%  (21 votes)

Derrick Williams (MIN)  25%  (15 votes)

Chase Budinger (HOU)  13.33%  (8 votes)

Paul George (IND)  26.67%  (16 votes)

Total Votes: 60

IB TIMES: (before Shumpert scratch)

Iman Shumpert (NYK)  23.51%  (174 votes)

Derrick Williams (MIN)  35.27%  (261 votes)

Chase Budinger (HOU)  12.16%  (90 votes)

Paul George (IND)  29.05%  (215 votes)

 Total Votes: 740

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Inflexwetrust.com :

Houston Rockets\’ Chase Budinger	12% (15)
Indiana Pacers\’ Paul George	43% (56)
Utah Jazz\’s Jeremy Evans	8% (10)
Minnesota Timberwolves\’ Derrick Williams	37% (48)
Total number of votes is 129.

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NBA.com

Chase Budinger		425	-	12%
Jeremy Evans		621	-	17%
Paul George		1397	-	39%
Derrick Williams		1135	-	32%

The Hoop scene:

• Paul George (43%, 40 Votes)
• Iman Shumpert (26%, 24 Votes)
• Derrick Williams (19%, 18 Votes)
• Chase Budinger (9%, 8 Votes)
• Jeremy Evans (3%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 93

Aggregate of all polls:

	Votes	Out of	%
Paul George	1724	4600	37.50%
Derrick Williams	1477	4600	32.10%
Jeremy Evans	655	3860*	17%	*was not available in 1 poll
Chase Budinger	546	4600	11.90%

So if you consider this sample of poll results, Chase Budinger should be the longest-shot in this contest, yet he is the priced as the 2nd most likely to win next to George.

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These are the same voters that will decide the dunk contest winner, so it would take nothing short of Chase Budinger doing the first back-flip dunk without the aid of a trampoline to change the voters’ minds.

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These poll results aren’t even the only evidence that Budinger will not win this contest.  Since the dunk contest became an annual event in 1984, only 1 caucasian has won the conest (Brent Barry- 1996.)  That is 1 white winner in 27 years!

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On to the sure money,  If you want to win a virtually guaranteed 20.44% ROI today you can bet the 3 black contestants in this ratio:

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Odds:

George +175

Williams (+275)

Evans (+400)

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For above odds:

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Paul George: (1.00)

Derrick Williams: (.733)

Jeremy Evans: (.550)

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So for every $10 on George=

• $7.33 on Williams
• $5.55 on Evans

ROI= 20.44%

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You could cut Evans out for a 58.65% profit, but I think he has a chance to win it.  He will get all of the underdog votes.

Also, if you don’t respect 20.44% profit.. you can parlay the 3 dunkers in the same ratio with your straight -110 bets today and turn all of your -110 bets into +130 bets.

NBA Thursday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 56-38 YTD..(59.5%)

Tough showing by the Hawks yesterday, but the isolated incidence of a blowout always boosts the stock of the team that was on the wrong end of it.  It’s been an interesting run, it’s been 8 days since I last had a day at less than 50%.. but only 3 of those 8 days were winning.  TONS of breaking even going on.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trend ADV	Market	W Deficit	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
NYK	95	-9				1.5			0.5
MIA	104	9	-9.5	0	0			1.0
ORL	88	-2	-4.5				Richardson	1.5
ATL	90	2		5	2	0.5	Johnson		6.5
SAS	101	-3	-3.5				Ginobilli, Splitter	1.0
DEN	104	3		3	2	1	Lawson,Nene		6.5
LAL	91	-10			1.5	1		0.0
OKC	101	10	-6.5	2					3.5

Plays:

Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The public is pushing this line way up.  Likely many of the same people that took the Hawks last night are fading them tonight, which is always a terrible strategy, you cannot revenge bet and expect to win in the long run.  My reasoning for taking the Hawks is simple, they are a competitive team that is catching 4.5 points AT HOME.  Irrationaliy is running rampant among the public because they are weighing last night’s loss along with Joe Johnson’s injury in a scenario where odds makers are 2 steps ahead.  Pure irrationality, which equals a payday for the wise.

Studies have shown that home teams are 2.05% more likely to cover the spread, and favorites are 1.86% less likely to cover the spread:

["We find that there is evidence, both in the total data and in Logan sample, for favorites being overpriced relative to the line. In the total data, favorites are 1.86 percent less likely to beat the line. Home teams are 2.05 percent more likely to beat the line, which suggests that home teams are underpriced and that favorites are overpriced relative to the line."] (Sinkey and Logan 2009)

So by taking home dogs alone, you are putting yourself at around a 3.91% advantage in the long term.  That alone can boost you over the 52.4% “break even” point in sports betting.

This line should keep improving, I will update via twitter when I end-up taking it.

Denver Nuggets +3.5

Once again, we have a home dog that happens to be a competitive team with a string of injuries.  In actuality, the Spurs injuries to Splitter and Ginobilli are more significant than the Nuggets injuries.  This is because the Gallanari injury is now dated to the point where books have it dead-on, so we don’t have to account for it anymore, and Nene (+1.3) + Lawson (+4.5) < Ginobilli (+14.9) + Splitter (+4.2).  That is raw (+/-) analysis, I process it at a 1:3 ratio so Nene’s absence= 1.3/3= (.43) Lawson= 4.5/3= (1.5).  I have to shade Ginobilli’s absence because he just recently returned at half capacity so his base gets cut in half and then  processed: Ginobilli= 14.9/2= 7.45/3= (2.48) and Splitter= 4.2/3= (1.4)

So the Nuggets injury disadvantage is a bit of an illusion right now, it would be a different story if they didn’t have Andre Miller, a long-time starter in the NBA and who could be starting regularly for a lot of teams in the NBA.  Add that to the fact that the Spurs are on the last game of their yearly “circus road trip” that has been very successful AND All-Star break starts after the game.  I could see this aging Spurs roster starting break a little early.

I am going to wait on this line, as well, will update via twitter.

Speaking of twitter, my following is growing so I now consider is feasible to post halftime hedges for our plays.  Hedging should be in every bettors arsenal, but I don’t think that is the case.  For those of you that aren’t familiar, I’ll explain last night’s hedge in the UTA/MIN game.  Utah was up 12 at half and the line at half was MIN -6.5, the hedge offered us Minnesota +5.5 to accompany our Utah +5 bet, giving us a 10.5 window to hit the middle and win both wagers.  This was an absolute no-brainer, I take any middle of 6 or more points.  I bet hedges for half the value of my original bet (0.5-unit) so I cut my risk in half and then hit the middle to increase my original wager value by a half unit.  Hedging is selling-off risk in return for an opportunity to hit the middle, a +EV deal.

I was going to release last night’s hedge via twitter, but I figured I should address the hedging scheme before I acted on it because my people would simply think I was bailing on the Utah bet without good reason.

Follow me on twitter: @mrchandman

NBA Wednesday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 55-37 YTD (59.8%)

We had a nice late line movement yesterday and got quite an easy cover/SU win out of the Grizzlies.  I was late to announce the Grizzlies as an official play, but that happens occasionally and is one of the reasons I strongly suggest you follow me on twitter.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trends	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Overall Edge
DET	93	-3		0-13			2		1.5
TOR	96	3	-4.5	1-1	1	0.5		Kleiza
SAC	100	-3		1-5					0.5
WAS	103	3	-3.5	9-0	1.5	0.5
IND	96	2	-5.5	10-1				Foster
CHAR	94	-2		6-0	4	2.5	2		3.5
NOH	90	-2		1-8	0.5	1	1		3.5
CLE	92	2	-5.5	4-0				Varejao
BOS	88	-10		6-4	2	1.5	2	Rondo,Bass
OKC	98	10	-9	1-1			2	Harden	1
ORL	96	5	-6.5	2-4			3	Richardson
NJ	91	-5		3-0	1.5	2	1	Farmar, Humphries	1.5
ATL	95	3		6-0	3			Johnson	9.5
NYK	92	-3	-6.5	0-4		0.5	2
MIL	89	-11		7-4	1	2			0.5
CHI	100	11	-11.5	2-1
PHI	92	-3		5-4				Brand	1.5
HOU	95	3	-4.5	0-4	1	0	0.5
UTA	100	1		6-0	2.5		3		5
MIN	99	-1	-4	3-3		0		Pekovic
GSW	101	-2		4-1	0.5	0.5		Udoh	2.5
PHO	103	2	-4.5	3-2			1
LAL	89	-3		3-1	0.5	0.5	1		1.5
DAL	92	3	-4.5	0-3				Beaubois
DEN	99	-8		2-3	1			Gallo,Lawson,Nene
LAC	107	8	-7.5	1-1		0	4		0.5

Plays:

Atlanta Hawks +7

Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line

This is pretty much the quintessential play for my method.  (1) We are gaining a theoretical edge from the fact that Atlanta plays better on the road than at home and New York plays worse at home than they do on the road.

(2) We are taking advantage of any over-adjustment due to the loss of Joe Johnson and the recent return of Carmelo Anthony.

(3) We are taking advantage of a “noumenal edge”.  Jeremy Lin is a phenom and, as a little philosophy lesson, phenomenal in opposite of noumenal.  The phenomenal world refers to anything that is an object of the senses (bias), the noumenal world is based on facts known without the senses (without bias.)  Basically, all the hype that surrounds Jeremy Lin is in excess of the actual skills he possesses and the actual difference he makes.  Historically, the noumenal realm describes as the “world of ideas”,  in contrast the phenomenal realm equates to the realm of sensory reality known to the uneducated mind.  Which realm do you exist in?  The noumenal if you understand my reasoning for taking the Hawks.

Also, do not forget that Jeff  Teague and Kirk Hinrich are considered to be 2 of the top on-ball perimeter defenders in the NBA.  Look for an off-night from Lin.

Hold-off on this line, I think the Joe Johnson injury will encourage the public even more and push this line to 7+.

Utah Jazz +5

Unit split: 75% spread and 25% money line

The trend returns for this match-up, in a less-extreme manner.  The T-Wolves are yet another team that plays better on the road, so we are gaining another theoretical edge due to the universal home court advantage adjustment that books make.

Another huge factor is Pekovic’s absence.  Many people do not understand how important Pekovic has become to this team.  Next to Love he is, statistically, the second-most important player to this team.  To put it in perspective: Love creates a +9.8 net (+/-) advantage for the T-Wolves.. Pekovic creates a +8.8 net (+/-) advantage.. Rubio only creates a +4.1 net (+/-) advantage.. Now, how many of you would consider, without researching it, Rubio’s absence is more important than Pekovic’s?.. that’s what I thought.

Wait on this line, it should improve due to a heavy public backing of the T-Wolves.

NBA Tuesday.. 3-3 yesterday.. 54-37 YTD (59.3%)

Tough 3-3 result yesterday, with some narrow losses from Milwaukee and Utah.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trend ADV	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
DET	96	-1			1		1		4.0	0.5
CLE	97	1	-1.5	3		0		Varejao
NOH	87	-7			1	2	0		0.0	4
IND	94	7	-11	4			0
SAC	97	-11		3	2	2.5	0			2.5
MIA	108	11	-13.5				0		0.0
PHI	89	-3	-1	3			0	Brand
MEM	92	3			2	0.5	1		0.0	4
SAS	92	-7						Ginobilli, Splitter
POR	99	7	-4	5	2.5	1	3		3.0	3

Right now I have a 4-point edge for both New Orleans (+11) and Memphis (+1), but need those lines to move up to at least +12 and +2, respectively, to make a play for today.

NBA Monday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 51-34 YTD (60%)

Another easy cover and SU win on Sunday.  Monday’s card is extremely soft, we have more plays today than we’ve had in a single day all season.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trends	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
ATL	88	-7		1-0		1				3
CHI	95	7	-10	2-0	0.5		0		4.0
NJN	97	-1		2-1	2	2		Farmar	1.0	8.5
NYK	98	1	-9.5	0-6			1
ORL	93	-3	-3	1-3			0	Richardson
MIL	96	3		5-0	1.5	1	1	Gooden	2.0	6
MEM	92	-4		1-1
HOU	96	4	-3	1-6	0	0			1.5	1
BOS	87	-7		7-6		1	1	Rondo,Garnett	2.0	2
DAL	93	7	-8	0-2			4	Beaubois
NOH	89	-10		1-2	1	3		Okafor		1.5
OKC	99	10	-11.5	0-2			0		0.0
MIN	106	2		1-3	0		3			6
DEN	104	-2	-4	2-1		0		Nene, Gallanari	0.0
SAS	92	-7	-3	1-11				Splitter, Ginobili
UTA	99	7		1-3	2.5	1	3		1.0	10
WAS	102	1		7-0	3.5	1			4.0	7
PHO	101	-1	-6	6-1
POR	87	-7		5-1	1.5
LAL	94	7	-4	2-2		0			1.5	3
LAC	97	-5	-3	0-6
GSW	102	5		4-0	3.5	1.5			3.0	8

Plays:

New Jersey Nets +9.5

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

The Knicks are always going to be overpriced, at least until “Linsanity” dies down.  This line is probably inflated further because Melo is returning to the lineup.

This is a great spot because you have to teams that defy the home court advantage logic.  Both of these teams play better on the road, so naturally the Nets gain a big advantage from that fact.  The Knicks lacking home court advantage may be attributed to the fact that Madison Square is a favorite place to play for many NBA players across the league, it is the basketball mecca, so it may be that road teams just play better in that building.

I expect the Knicks to sleepwalk through this game after an emotional win against the Mavericks.  Expect the the Knicks to look a little sloppy in Melo’s return.

Milwaukee Bucks +3

Unit split: 60% spread and 40% money line

The Bucks get another crack at the Magic, just days after they should have come away with a road win on Friday night but instead let the Magic finish the game on a 17-0 run and beat them by 9 points.  It is obvious why the public will be on the Magic, many that didn’t have a stake in that game on Friday will probably just look at the result and think it was a routine Magic win by 9 points.  It was far from routine, the Bucks should be absolutely disgusted and ready to play a full 48-minutes and take the W like they should have last week.

Minnesota Timberwolves +4

Unit split: 75% spread and 25% moneyline

The Nuggets kinda blew their whole load on the OKC game and now they are right back at it against a competitive Timberowlves team.  Love is going to have a hay day on the boards, because there isn’t really anyone on the Nuggets that can contest him.  At the end of the day, they are missing their [statistically] most important player in Gallanari and their down-low presence in Nene.  I don’t think this line is accurately accounting for their injuries, because -4 is a common home line for 2 similar teams.  I could see the Nuggets getting blown out at home in this emotional hangover game.

Utah Jazz  +3

Unit split: 65% spread and 35% money line

I think people forget how much better the Jazz are at home than they are on the road.  Utah hold the biggest edge of any team today.  They swept my categorical edges 7-0, and the public is all over the Spurs. This game closely resembles the Suns games from last night, and we all know how that turned out for the home dog.

Washington Wizards +6

Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line

This is another couple of teams that defy logic and play better on the road than they do at home.  Both of these teams like to escape the cold truth that they just don’t have a very big fan base and it is a bit embarrassing to play in an empty home arena.

This is a letdown spot for the Suns, and the Wizards are progressing from their horrid start to the season.  Whoever is more interested in this game will win it SU.  I basically think it is a coin-flip, so +6 is a bargain.

Golden State Warriors +3

Unit split: 65% spread and 35% money line

The Clippers are coming off of 2 horrid performances and they only lost 1 of them.  The Clippers are a good road team, and they don’t have to travel far to get to Oakland.  However, the Clippers are a public darling and their lines are becoming more and more inflated.  If you see 85% of the public on a road favorite, it should be a red flag if you know what you are doing.

All of these plays are against public perception, so we can wait for more favorable lines to take shape.  Don’t be surprised to see any of them move against the public trends, though.  Golden State has already been moved in the opposite direction.

Show some support, follow me on twitter: @mrchandman

NBA Sunday.. 1-0 Yesterday.. 50-34 YTD (59.5%)

We got an easy Nets cover on Saturday, which was well-deserved after bad beats on Thursday and Friday out of the Blazers and Bucks.

Another sharp card on Sunday, but at least we’ll get one play out of the 10-game card.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trend ADV	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
DAL	95	3	-2.5	2			2	Beaubois, West		0.5
NYK	92	-3			2	1	1	Anthony	0.0
ORL	93	-7		1		0.5				2
MIA	100	7	-9		0				3.0
BOS	92	4	-5.5	4.5				Bass	4.0
DET	88	-4			1.5	1	0.5			1.5
SAC	99	-1			2		1			1
CLE	100	1	-2	0.5		0		Varejao	0.0
CHA	90	-8			1.5	2.5			2.0	3
IND	98	8	-11	2
MIL	98	1	-2
NJN	97	-1		1	0.5	0.5			0.0	1
UTA	95	-7			1	0.5
HOU	102	7	-6	1					0.0	1
PHI	96	1								2
MIN	95	-1	-1	1	2	1			0.0
DEN	102	-7			3			Nene, Gallo		1.5
OKC	109	7	-8.5	even			3		0.0
LAL	93	-4	-2.5
PHO	97	4		3	3.5	1			1.0	6.5

Play:

Phoenix Suns +3

Unit split: 65% spread and 35% money line

This one is playing-out just right for a public disaster.  The Lakers are always over-priced because of their fan base, but now a 12-point win against the Suns is fresh on the minds of the betting public.  This line will not go high enough to get the square public off of the Lakers, apparently a 12-point win at home against the Suns on Friday is enough to make everyone forget that the Lakers only win 33% of their road games, let alone cover a 3-point spread.

If you can’t see the value on the Suns in this one, then you just don’t get it.  I expect this line to hit +3.5 soon and it could end as high as +4.5.  It just depends on how willing the books are to let the sharps beat them on the Suns because we know the Laker’s public backing is large enough to push it that high.  Every market inefficiency edge that I track favors the Suns today.

The unit split will change as this line inflates, so check my “NBA spread/moneyline split-unit schedule” before you make a play at whatever number you decide to take.

Show some support, follow me on twitter: @mrchandman

NBA Saturday.. 2-2 yesterday.. 49-34 YTD (59%)

Tough beat from the Bucks yesterday, but at least we got a little bonus money from the Hornets and Bobcats money lines to cut into the juice.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trend ADV	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
SAS	93	-7
LAC	100	7	-3	3	0	0.5			4.0	4
NJN	88	-5		2	3	3	3		2.0	6.5
CHI	93	5	-11.5					Rose
GSW	95	-4		2	2	1			0.5	1.5
MEM	99	4	-5.5
ATL	90	-1			1					3
POR	91	1	-4	0		0.5

Play:

New Jersey Nets +11.5

Unit split: 100% on the spread and 0% on the money line

The Bulls have been over-performing in Derrick Rose’s absence, so we get a little discount on his injury.  The last time these teams played, New Jersey was foiled by a terrible first quarter.  They inflated the line for that recent blowout, because recent results weigh so heavy in the minds of the public.  This line is fishy if you consider the margin of victory last time they met, also if you consider that the line was Bulls -10 in New Jersey.  However, like I have noted before, the Nets play better on the road and that makes them a +EV play on the road and -EV play at home because of the aut0 home adjustment that most people make “just because.”

The Nets are a pretty talented team and if you let them hang around they can bite you.  That being said, I don’t think the Nets quite have what it takes to take the Bulls down at home, so I’m just going to play 100% on the spread.  If  the Nets can take advantage of the sometimes soft Chicago interior (anytime Noah is out), and pressure the Bulls ball-handler, they should have a lot of success in this game against the feared Bulls.

It is also worth noting that Brook Lopez is likely to make his return today.  He will probably be very limited in minutes, but he can’t really hurt the thin Nets front court and we get some value in his return because the odds makers aren’t going to adjust for a guy that hasn’t played a game all season.

I am going to wait until the last minute to make this bet, in an effort to squeeze any added value I can out of the line.

NBA Friday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 47-32 YTD (59.5%)

Tough finish to the Blazers games, looked like an easy cash at the end of the 3rd quarter.

4 prospective plays for today, we should be able to get down on at least 3 of them.

Match	Score	Margin	Line	Trend ADV	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Prev Match	Overall Edge
MIL	95	-3		even	2	1			1.0	5
ORL	98	3	-8				0
CHA	92	-2		3	2.5	1	2			5
TOR	94	2	-7					Kleiza	0.0
SAC	94	-3			1	0		Cousins
DET	97	3	-2	2			0		2.0	1
MIA	102	4	-10				1
CLE	98	-4		1	2.5	2		Varejao	1.0	5.5
NOH	92	-1		3	3.5	1.5	2			9
NYK	93	1	-10					Anthony	0.0
DEN	99	1		3	0.5			Gallo Nene	1.0	4
MEM	98	-1	-4			0	2.5
MIN	96	-5				0.5
HOU	101	5	-4.5	1	0.5		0		1.5	0.5
GSW	99	-13				2			1.5
OKC	112	13	-10.5	2	0.5		0			2.5
DAL	90	-3						Terry Beaubois
PHI	93	3	-3	1	0	0	2		0.0	0
WAS	94	-8		1		1				2
UTA	102	8	-10		0.5		0		0.0
PHO	90	-6			0.5	1			1.5	2.5
LAL	96	6	-8.5	even			0

Plays:

Milwaukee Bucks +8

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

News that Drew Gooden is out may have just sweetened this bet up considerably, we just need the line adjustment to match.  The fact is that Leuer is a much more efficient player than Gooden is. Leuer is actually the most valuable Bucks, in terms of net (+/-) value regarding the good he does when he is on the court/damage is done when he is on the bench.  Leuer’s value is +6.3 which is quite high, one the other hand, Gooden rank’s 3rd-to-last on the Bucks with a value of -4.5, meaning he puts the Bucks at a 4.5-point deficit.

Most people over-value starters just because they are labeled as starters.  Leuer only narrowly trails Gooden in points, rebounds, assists per 36 mins but he is better where it counts: less turnovers, higher FG%, more blocks.

Charlotte Bobcats +7

Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line

This match-up presents another interesting injury situation.  These are 2 of the worst teams in the NBA and should not be separated by 7 points.  The Bobcats are healthier than they have been since the start of the season, while the raptors are very banged-up.  I did not adjust for Bargnani’s absence, because he has been gone for so many games that the line is adjusted accordingly.  However, the injury to Linus Kleiza is far more important than you may think.

Kleiza is the second most important player on the Raptors, statistically.  Second to whom? You got it, Bargnani.  Bargnani creates a +8.8 net (+/-) for the  Raptors, and Kleiza creates +6.1.  The next most important player is James Johnson at +1.5 so there is a huge gap, meaning Kleiza basically took-over for Bargnani’s all-important lead role, even though he is a bench player.  Kleiza being a bench player is precisely why his injury will fly under the radar.

The Bobcats could easily win this one straight-up. They hold a huge trend advantage here, so I will list the trends that are helping to inflate this line:

Bobcats ATS trends due for progression:

• Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Bobcats are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
• Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Raptors ATS trends due for regression:

• Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Raptors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
• Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Cleveland Cavaliers +10

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

LeBron makes another return to Cleveland.  You can be sure that the home crowd will be in full attendance and belligerent, god bless them.  The Cavs are a bit banged-up, but they only lose a small advantage with Varejao’s absence.  Varejao contributes +3.4 (+/-) for  team.   Erden needs to step-up and have another big game.  I think it’s better for the Cavs to have Parker and Gibson out, so Sessions gets a full complement of minutes and Gee has another opportunity to prove himself.

The Cavs are quietly tied for the 3rd-best team when it comes to ATS (+/-) at +1.9 and that means they are quite undervalued.  I think the Cavs hold their own in this emotional game against their former star, 10 is just too many points.

New Orleans Hornets +10

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

This is simply a value play, I don’t have much good to say about the Hornets, and I didn’t have much good to say about the Knicks until Jeremy Lin came around.  All I know is that the books cannot afford to keep setting lines that the Knicks can cover night after night, Jeremy Lin’s emergence has created so much fan fare in a huge city that Knicks homer money is enough to inflate this line, let alone the rest of the country that has been diagnosed with LINsanity, it’s a LINpedemic.

The Hornets appear to be very banged-up, and they are, but all that is on the surface.  If you look at the numbers, Ayon and Vasquez are the most important active players for the Hornets at +8.4 and +4.0 respectively.  Gordon technically makes the biggest difference (+11.4) for the Hornets, but he has only played 6% of Hornets minutes this year.  Vasquez and Ayon, along with the re-emergence of Chris Kaman make the Hornets a worthy team to at least stay within 10 points of the Knicks, if not catch them looking ahead to Dallas and shock them at home.  The Hornets only have 6 wins, but look at who they have beaten: Suns, Celtics, Nuggets, Magic, Bucks, Jazz granted, some of those teams are having down years, but 4 of the 6 still have a record over .500 pct.

It’s worth noting that the Hornets will get Jack back for this game, he isn’t a great contributor in terms of (+/-) at -4.5, but it helps their thin back court.

The Hornets hold a large trend progression/regression advantage so I will note those trends:

Hornets ATS trends due for progression:

• Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Hornets are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings vs. New York.

Knicks ATS trends due for regression:

• Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
• Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

All of are plays are backed by around 40% or less of the public, so all the lines should move in our favor if they do move, so hold-off for the best numbers you can get.

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NBA Thursday.. 2-2 yesterday.. 46-31 YTD (59.7%)

A little free entertainment yesterday, and the Rockets ML offset some of the juice.  I’ll take a day like yesterday anytime.

Match	Score	Margin	Prelim Edge	Line	Trends	Market	W Deficit	Injury ADV	Injury	Overall Edge
NJ	96	-2	5.5		5-0	1	3	3	Farmar	6.5
IND	98	2		-8.5	10-2			1	Granger
BOS	86	-9			3-4		3	3	Garnett Bass
CHI	95	9	1.5	-7.5	2-5	1		2.5	Rose	1.5
LAC	93	-4	2	-2	4-3			3.5	Billups
POR	97	4			4-1	2.5	1	1.5	Aldridge	6

We are fortunate to have the most plays on a TNT Thursday than we’ve had all season.

Plays:

New Jersey Nets +8.5

Unit Split: 95% on the spread and 5% on the moneyline

This play is contingent on Granger being out.  He is questionable, but he may sneak into the line-up.  His injury makes a 3-point difference in the Nets edge.  We will have to wait until his status is released, so keep your eye on that injury wire.

Of my 7 criteria, the Pacers only hold an edge for being on their home floor and a slight trend advantage.  Both teams are due to lose ATS, though.  This line is only 1-point lower than it was last time the Nets went to Conseco Field House, that tells me that they are under-adjusting for Granger’s injury.

We are going to wait to get down on this play until Granger’s situation is better known.  Granger playing wouldn’t void the play, but I would probably hold-off if he is likely to play.

Portland Trail Blazers +2

Unit split: 40% on the spread and 60% on the moneyline.

When the Clippers visited Rose Garden Arena in January the line was Blazers -5.5 now the Clippers make a return trip to a 7.5-point difference in the line.  I think you can agree that Aldridge’s injury is being grossly over-adjusted for.  How could Granger’s absence be worth only 1 point, while Aldridge is worth 7.5 points?

The Blazers are also on a b2b2b, which are hyped-up by the media and square bettors.  This 3-game set consists of 2 home games and a hop down to Oakland to beat the Warriors.  Lines will be inflated for every b2b2b this season.

It is also notable that Billups’ injury is worth 1.5 points and he still qualifies as an injury factor because he played in half of the Clippers past 10 games.

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