NBA Tuesday.. 29-14 this month (67%) on a 5-0 streak

Another close Bulls cover last night, but it wasn’t nearly as close as the score told.  Bulls were up 21 in the 4th and had around 7 turnovers on the 4th quarter.  Nevertheless, our streak continues.

Today we have 2 plays. One you need to get right now or miss out, and another that we can wait to get the best line on.

Tuesday’s plays:

Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (-5.5 at the highest)

I got this line at -4.5 and told everyone via twitter to jump on it before it moved.  It is now up to -5.5 in most places and -6 in some.  Your last chance to get in on it is @-5.5.. the edge depletes too much @-6.

The Raptors are a bit undervalued, that is why I am surprised they opened this line at -4.5.  I keep saying that the Raptors have talent and depth, but that can only take you so far and help you cover double-digit spreads.  They are in over their heads against the Hawks and won’t be able to score enough, with Bargnani out, to keep this one close.

The Hawks are just as deep as the Raptors, but they tend to ask more minutes from their star players (something the raptors do not have) but they still keep their legs fresh and won’t keep Smith and Johnson in the game to a point where it hurts their team.

Detroit Pistons +8.5 (should improve)

This play is courtesy of the ill-conceived public notion that the Knicks are a good team.  Since the Knicks have Melo and Stoudemire they are considered a “sexy” team, but they are far from sexy.  The Knicks are my #29 home team and they play better on the road than they do at home, which is most likely due to the fact that their home crowd boo’s them 3-7 times a night.

The Pistons are actually very talented with a rookie of the year candidate in Brandon Knight, a big guard that gets points, assists, and rebounds in Rodney Stuckey, and a crafty lefty down low in Greg Monroe who can explode if he isn’t guarded right (the Knicks will not guard him right). The Pistons also  have some experience in Prince and a decent bench with Jerebko and Daye.  I give the Pistons a 9.5 edge ATS and my number say that this game should be a pick ‘em or -1 in the Pistons favor.

I hope Carmelo Anthony returns this game because the Knicks are worse when he is in the lineup and smothering their offensive game.  Also, we will will get a better line if Carmelo Anthony plays, so it’s a win-win.

NBA Monday.. 3-0 yesterday and 4-0 last 2 days (28-14 this month 66%)

Another good day for us yesterday, 2 of the 3 dogs we took won straight up.  It’s advisable to bet a 90/10% split on my dog bets (i.e. 90% on the spread and 10% on the ML) this is because the majority of my dogs actually win SU, as I only play underdogs with large advantages.  This is the only type of extra pay you’ll see me taking.. I don’t believe winning bettors use many parlays, it’s actually common knowledge that winning bettors don’t play many parlays.

One play for Monday:

Chicago Bulls -9

You’ll need to get this line ASAP, because it should move.  This of one of those bets that the public will win and the book will play dearly on.  A lot will have to go wrong on the Bulls side of the ball for this game to stay within double-digits.  The Wizards are not even close to matching up.  The Bulls hold such an edge on the offensive boards that they may score on every single possession in this game, weather it be 1st,2nd,3rd,4th..-chance points.

I expect the Bulls to take-out their aggression from the Heat game on the Wizards, they will not even give the Wiz an outside chance to upset them.  Expect this to be a 20+ Bulls win and the Wizards to score in the 70′s.

NBA Sunday

Coming off our 1- unit winner yesterday, looks like we’ll have 2, maybe 3 plays for Sunday.  I started toying with halftimes yesterday, and it worked out very well (3-0).  I like to incorporate halftime plays when the game lines start tightening up during the season.  I’ll try to take home some winning on halftimes today, and if it starts to prove profitable I may start to tweet the halftime lines I am taking.

Sunday’s plays:

Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Bulls are deeper than a lot of people give them credit for.  On the other hand, the Heat are a 2.5 man show that is probably worse when all 2.5 are playing at the same time.  The Heat can’t really hang with the Bulls on defense either.  This game should be very close throughout and I don’t think the winner takes this one by more than 3 points.  I would not be surprised if the Bulls win, take an 85-15% approach and bet the spread (-4.5) for 85% of your unit and the ML for 15% of your unit.

Toronto Raptors +5

The Nets are heavily favored by the public, but the spread actually ticked in their favor.  The Raptors are a deep team that doesn’t have to depend on 30 minutes out of any one guy.  On the other hand, the Nets HAVE to get 35+ minutes out of at least 2 guys every game.. Jordan Farmar is basically their only form of bench play.  The Raptors will keep their legs fresh and keep this one close, pr maybe even win another road game tonight.

It’s also worth noting that the Nets dislike their home arena and they actually play better on the road than they do at home.

Cleveland Caveliers+7

I’m glad that the Celtics are going on a cute little public pleasing run.  The Celtics have been a fixture of NBA greatness for decades and this year they just don’t live-up to their reputation, which is great for [good] bettors because the public will ride the Celtics until they have multiple losing years in a row.  The Cavs are young, talented and very undervalued ever since LeBron jumped ship.  Irving is getting better with every game, Sessions isn’t a slough coming in to relieve Irving, Gibson is almost a 3-pt specialist, they have experience and scoring in Jamison, they have 2 very athletic young guys in Gee and Thompson.. I mean this is a DEEP and TALENTED team.  This line is already like stealing, and yet it may even get up to +7.5.

1-0 on Saturday (25-14 this month) Looking forward to NBA Sunday..

The Bucks helped us recoup our lost unit from last night.  It wasn’t really ever in doubt, as the Bucks led by double-digits for a good amount of the game.

I may start tightening my standards as to what kind of edge elicits a play.  I got a bit action-crazed on Friday and really should have only taken New Jersey and Toronto (which would have broken even) but it would have been better than losing a unit.  The Grizzlies play on Thursday was mostly a public fade, the Grizzlies only had a 2-point edge ATS.

Right now I see 2 prospective plays for Sunday, with 3 lines yet to be released.  My rankings give an 8.5 point edge to the Bulls and an 11-point edge to the Raptors.  The Raptors edge should increase because the majority of early money is on the Nets.

While you should sit on the Raptors right up until game time, be sure to check back early Sunday morning to see what the Bulls line is doing.  I will give you a forecast tomorrow morning on weather we should pull the trigger early or wait on the Bulls line to improve.

Friday’s NBA Action.. 22-11 this month (66%)

The Grizzlies couldn’t seal the deal last night, in a very wild game with lots of turnovers and flagrant fouls.. we got left on the short end of the numerous breaks.

Back to some great action on Friday.  I have 5 prospective plays but they are not set in stone yet. I will list the prospective  teams but not the lines as not to confuse anyone into thinking that these are the confirmed plays.

PROSPECTIVE Friday plays:

New Jersey Nets +5

This play is courtesy of the idiotic public bettors that now consider the Cavs as a good team because they beat the [terrible] Knicks and lost John Q. Public a “lock” bet.  The Nets are more talented than the Cavs and Deron Williams has the talent and experience to mop the floor with Kyrie Irving.  The public bettors are pushing this line up and we could get it above +5, which would be almost like stealing.

Indiana Pacers -3

The action is pretty much split on this bet, but I give the Pacers a 5-points intrinsic edge over the line.  That edge doesn’t even account for the fact that Boston is on a b2b coming off of a very taxing comeback win against the Magic.  Can you say “let down”?

New York Knicks +12

I am so glad that Carmelo Anthony is out, he is a cancer that completely stagnates the Knicks offense.  Also, we will get a more favorable line because the public thinks that Melo IS the Knicks.  We should be able to get this line at around +12 to +13 one the slow public bettors find out that Melo is out.

Utah Jazz +5

The Jazz a scrappy bunch that can hang with anyone on any given night. The Mavs have a lot of “homers”, as any defending champion does.  This line is getting inflated due to public perception, even without Dirk.

Toronto Raptors +13

Ah, the Raptors, one of the least respected teams in the league.  I am not saying the Raptors are great, but they are deep with a lot of decent players.  This line is too high, especially given that Lawson is a no-go.  Denver is due for regression because they have been playing out of their minds to start this season.  Again, public perception is pushing this line higher and higher.  I’ll take +12.5 any day, on pretty much any team, even without the large edge that the Raptors hold over the spread.

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These picks are official. I got these lines @ Sports Interaction. They shade the public more than a lot of books, so that is why lines on the underdogs may be better than you can get at your book.

Plays for Thursday 1-26.. 3-1 last night and 22-10 this month (68.5%)

It’s another small-card TNT Thursday tonight and we actually have a decent play to lay and get our all-important entertainment value on a prime-time night in the NBA.

I am having an elite month in the NBA with a winning percentage of 68.5%.  If you follow my picks regularly and are not winning money you need to either:

a) Learn how to manage your bankroll (not as easy as it sounds).  As a guideline, only 0.5 of a unit should ever be used on parlays on any given night, and that’s a high parlay rate.

b) Quit betting, because you are supposed to make money @~53% and you aren’t even in the black @68.5%

If you like the rush of betting but you are tired of losing money due to poor money management, you should sign-up here and bet risk-free for real cash: http://www.freesportsbet.com/billstatwise.html

I started using it this season, why not take free money, and I am up to $30 from my original $1 that you start with and will always have in your account no matter how many times you go bankrupt.

Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

Now I cannot tell you this is the strongest play that I’ve seen lately, but it is just about the same strength of a play as the New Jersey Nets +12 was last night (New Jersey won the game by 7).  So it is a very strong play fro a small card TNT Thursday.

The Clippers don’t have anyone that can effectively cover Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol will give them fits down low.  The beauty of the Grizzlies is that they are still getting allowance for the fact that Z-Bo is out.  The bottom-line is that the Grizzlies are one of the scrappiest teams in the NBA and the Clippers really lack mettle, they are like the entitled teenagers of the NBA.

Wait until just before tip-off to take the Grizzlies because the public is all over this “sexy” Clippers team.  We should get the line up to +4 or +4.5 but if it goes down below +3 (many sharp play lines more opposite of public betting trends) just take the ML.

NBA Plays for Wednesday 1-25

Alright, I post all of my plays on twitter but I am going to start posting them here and linking my blog from twitter.  I also added a twitter feed to the right side of my blog home page.

Wednesday:

New Jersey Nets +12

The Nets are actually a pretty talented team.  One of their issues is that they have a disdain for their home arena.  That shows in my home/away power rankings as they rate 5 points higher on the road.  They are up against a good, but regressing, Philly team that is having problems at center.  Expect to see a lot of second-chance points for the Nets as they cover this spread. I don’t think they have a strong chance of winning but it will be closer than the number set.

Minnesota Timberwolves +6

This line is a bit too high for a low-scoring game.  The T-wolves are banged up, but playing well enough to notch an upset. The Mavs have absolutely no one that can match up with Love OR Rubio and they don’t have a go-to shooter when the shot clock is expiring.  Look for a cover and maybe a win out of the T-Wolves.

Toronto Raptors +10.5

The Raptors aren’t a great team, but they are deep and they have a lot of underrated players.. plus they have Bargnani who is almost as tough a cover as Dirk is in Dallas.  Utah has 2 good players (Millsap and Jefferson) and a bunch of mediocre role players, including a terrible starting PG that can’t hold a candle to Calderone or even Bayless.  This line is just too high and it is moving opposite of where the square money is.  Utah plays well at home so they should be a ble to squeak out a win, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a Raptors win.

Portland Trailblazers ML (+140)

I’m shocked that the squares aren’t all over Portland +3.5, @+140 you can’t pass up this kind of value.  Aldridge is a huge match up issue for the Warriors and Golden State has a tough time putting together 4 quarters of good basketball. A play like this is +EV (expected value) every time.

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All of my plays are backed by statistical data, and carefully calculated power rankings that account for various factors.  The info in my write-ups is mostly opinion that is based on those statistical findings, bias does not affect my picks in a any way.

In response to a reader’s question (info on how I handicap)

I am going to post the correspondence in the reply section of a post on this blog, just to bring to the home page because I think it is useful for those of you that want to create your own models for handicapping.

Reader’s Q:

Would you be able to point me towards some good resources to start learning how to handicap NBA games? I want to try to start designing my own models to cap games and look into/learn about the basics in terms of doing it for NBA games which I hope will help me start out and then allow me to make adaptations as I see fit.

Bill’s A:

Yeah. You can start off by establishing what you deem as statistically important in relation to overall performance. The four factors that influence performance most are commonly accepted as: Effective FG%, offensive rebounds per possession, turnovers per possession, and free throws per FG attempt. I agree with these four factors, but you must also account for home/road advantage (not all teams play better at home, although many do).

Home/away advantage are not uniform, you have make power rankings based on how well each team plays at home AND on the road. You can most stats you are looking for at various places on the web. Another thing to keep in mind are injuries, but I have a different take on injuries. I think that Vegas over-adjusts for injuries because the public freaks out if a star player is out. I like to bet on teams MORE when they have a star player out. Take the Bulls (without Rose), Heat (without Wade), Clippers (without Chris Paul).. those teams are a combined (12-5) or 70.5% ATS without those star players.

Another important aspect of handicapping is progression/regression. The NBA is a game of runs and a game of streaks. The longer a team is on a cold streak the more likely they are to progress to a statistical norm and vice-versa when they are in a hot streak. I implore you to base progression according to the spread and not just W/L. You are basically accounting for Vegas progression/regression in their odds making.

I appreciate your question. Please, ask as many as you please while you are trying to establish yourself as an independent handicapper.

This is only scratching the surface of how I do things, but a lot of what I do comes as second nature so most of the time I need an on-topic question to evoke my explanation of the most routine aspects of my system.  I warmly welcome and encourage readers to ask any question they may have.

Official Wednesday 1-18 plays

Ok, all of the NBA lines are out and so are my wagers for Wednesday.  All plays that I anticipated have come to fruition.

• OKC Thunder -10.5
• Toronto Raptors +7.5
• Golden State Warriors ML (+120)
• Phoenix Suns +9.5

OKC and Golden State have the biggest edges according to my model, but bet them all for the same amount.

No plays for Tuesday 1-17

There aren’t any line that offer much value tonight. My biggest calculated advantage was 5 points and the threshold to warrant a play is 12 points. To keep everyone excited about the 9-0 streak, here are tomorrow’s tentative plays (still waiting on lines):

• Oklahoma City Thunder (provided the line is -18 or less, it should be around -9 or -10).
• Phoenix Suns, provided the Knicks are favored by 4 points or more. I expect to see the Knicks favored by around 5
• Toronto or Golden State ML (maybe both). Boston must be favored by 6.5 and/or New Jersey must be favored by any amount

As you may be able to tell, I follow a strict statistical model. I think it is absolutely necessary to bet according to numbers and not just logic.  Logic can trick you depending on what circumstances you are under at the time you research/place your bets.  Also you have to bet every play the same, there are none that are more probable than others so I don’t lay more.  As your bankroll increases you adopt larger unit sizes, but each bet still for the same amount.