NBA Plays for Wednesday 1-25
Alright, I post all of my plays on twitter but I am going to start posting them here and linking my blog from twitter. I also added a twitter feed to the right side of my blog home page.
Wednesday:
New Jersey Nets +12
The Nets are actually a pretty talented team. One of their issues is that they have a disdain for their home arena. That shows in my home/away power rankings as they rate 5 points higher on the road. They are up against a good, but regressing, Philly team that is having problems at center. Expect to see a lot of second-chance points for the Nets as they cover this spread. I don’t think they have a strong chance of winning but it will be closer than the number set.
Minnesota Timberwolves +6
This line is a bit too high for a low-scoring game. The T-wolves are banged up, but playing well enough to notch an upset. The Mavs have absolutely no one that can match up with Love OR Rubio and they don’t have a go-to shooter when the shot clock is expiring. Look for a cover and maybe a win out of the T-Wolves.
Toronto Raptors +10.5
The Raptors aren’t a great team, but they are deep and they have a lot of underrated players.. plus they have Bargnani who is almost as tough a cover as Dirk is in Dallas. Utah has 2 good players (Millsap and Jefferson) and a bunch of mediocre role players, including a terrible starting PG that can’t hold a candle to Calderone or even Bayless. This line is just too high and it is moving opposite of where the square money is. Utah plays well at home so they should be a ble to squeak out a win, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a Raptors win.
Portland Trailblazers ML (+140)
I’m shocked that the squares aren’t all over Portland +3.5, @+140 you can’t pass up this kind of value. Aldridge is a huge match up issue for the Warriors and Golden State has a tough time putting together 4 quarters of good basketball. A play like this is +EV (expected value) every time.
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All of my plays are backed by statistical data, and carefully calculated power rankings that account for various factors. The info in my write-ups is mostly opinion that is based on those statistical findings, bias does not affect my picks in a any way.
