An experiment in mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent, rational decision-makers.

NBA Tuesday.. 29-14 this month (67%) on a 5-0 streak

Another close Bulls cover last night, but it wasn’t nearly as close as the score told.  Bulls were up 21 in the 4th and had around 7 turnovers on the 4th quarter.  Nevertheless, our streak continues.

Today we have 2 plays. One you need to get right now or miss out, and another that we can wait to get the best line on.

Tuesday’s plays:

Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (-5.5 at the highest)

I got this line at -4.5 and told everyone via twitter to jump on it before it moved.  It is now up to -5.5 in most places and -6 in some.  Your last chance to get in on it is @-5.5.. the edge depletes too much @-6.

The Raptors are a bit undervalued, that is why I am surprised they opened this line at -4.5.  I keep saying that the Raptors have talent and depth, but that can only take you so far and help you cover double-digit spreads.  They are in over their heads against the Hawks and won’t be able to score enough, with Bargnani out, to keep this one close.

The Hawks are just as deep as the Raptors, but they tend to ask more minutes from their star players (something the raptors do not have) but they still keep their legs fresh and won’t keep Smith and Johnson in the game to a point where it hurts their team.

Detroit Pistons +8.5 (should improve)

This play is courtesy of the ill-conceived public notion that the Knicks are a good team.  Since the Knicks have Melo and Stoudemire they are considered a “sexy” team, but they are far from sexy.  The Knicks are my #29 home team and they play better on the road than they do at home, which is most likely due to the fact that their home crowd boo’s them 3-7 times a night.

The Pistons are actually very talented with a rookie of the year candidate in Brandon Knight, a big guard that gets points, assists, and rebounds in Rodney Stuckey, and a crafty lefty down low in Greg Monroe who can explode if he isn’t guarded right (the Knicks will not guard him right). The Pistons also  have some experience in Prince and a decent bench with Jerebko and Daye.  I give the Pistons a 9.5 edge ATS and my number say that this game should be a pick ‘em or -1 in the Pistons favor.

I hope Carmelo Anthony returns this game because the Knicks are worse when he is in the lineup and smothering their offensive game.  Also, we will will get a better line if Carmelo Anthony plays, so it’s a win-win.

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